Robert Gauthier/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images; Rebecca Noble/Getty Images
- A new poll showed Kamala Harris had a surprise 3-point lead over Trump in Iowa.
- Betting odds on Robinhood and Kalshi tightened following the news.
- Trump won Iowa easily in both the 2016 and 2020 elections.
Vice President Kamala Harris’ betting odds jumped overnight after a new poll showed she held a surprise lead over former President Donald Trump in Iowa — a state he won easily in both 2016 and 2020.
A Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll by Selzer & Co. published on Saturday showed Harris with a three-point lead in the state.
The results were reflected in tightening odds in betting markets on Sunday morning.
On Kalshi, the popular US-based prediction platform, Harris’ odds of winning the election have soared from 35% on October 29 to 51% at the time of writing.
Harris’ odds of winning the popular vote also increased on Kalshi, rising from a low of about 61% on October 29 to 77% at the time of writing.
The electronic trading platform Robinhood also showed narrowing odds ahead of Tuesday’s election.
Trump had a 66% chance of winning on October 29 versus Harris’ 39% chance, based on bets placed on Robinhood. But, at the time of writing, that had narrowed to a 51% chance for Trump and a 50% chance for Harris.
Betting markets have capitalized on this year’s presidential election. Kalshi attracted over $100 million in bets on who will win in October alone.
Meanwhile, Polymarket, another prediction market — not available to US citizens — saw betting volume for the US election reach more than $2 billion on its platform last month, The Block reported.
The Iowa poll surveyed 808 likely voters between October 28 and October 31, with a 3.4-point margin of error.
The results marked a sharp swing from September when the same poll showed Trump ahead by four points.
