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Key Takeaways
- November wholesale inflation data showed an unexpected increase. Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.4% compared to the prior month.
- The spike in prices of final goods was attributable to a more-than 54% jump in the price of eggs as disruptions from bird flu pushed food prices higher.
- Overall, economists didn’t see enough evidence in the PPI report to keep the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates at its upcoming December meeting.
Wholesale prices increased faster than economists expected in November, logging the largest jump in the annual rate of wholesale inflation since February 2023—thanks in part to chicken eggs.
The Producer Price Index (PPI) for November showed wholesale prices for goods and services rose by 0.4% when compared with the prior month, resulting in an increase of 3% in the annual inflation rate, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This latest data follows an increase in wholesale prices in October.
Higher Food Prices Drive Up November Inflation
Prices for chicken eggs jumped more than 54%, significantly contributing to a 0.7% increase of the overall price of goods when compared with the prior month.
Egg prices soared in recent months partly due to a strain of avian influenza, or bird flu, that hit the nation’s commercial poultry flocks. Inflation at the wholesale level can carry over to consumer prices. Prices for fresh and dry vegetables, fresh fruits and melons, and processed poultry, alsoalso rose, BLS said.
Taking away the jump in food prices, some economists said that the wholesale inflation report showed that prices were broadly under control. The spike in producer prices isn’t expected to keep the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates next week.
“PPI isn’t so scary once you get past the headline. While the underlying data quell fears of a new inflation surge, they don’t suggest a quick fall to two percent either,” wrote Oren Klachkin, economist at Nationwide Financial Markets. “Producer prices, and the broader inflation complex, are on an extended and bumpy journey to the Fed’s goal.”
Producer Prices Hotter than Expected, But Rate Cut Still in Sight
Economists were anticipating slower wholesale inflation, with Wells Fargo projecting a 2.7% annual inflation rate from the November PPI report. The report follows yesterday’s release of the November Consumer Price Index (CPI), which showed an uptick in inflation that was in line with economist projections.
Without volatile food and energy costs included, the monthly “core” PPI reading rose at a more modest 0.2%. Wholesale services inflation also rose at a 0.2% monthly rate, prompting some economists to view the overall jump in the PPI as temporary.
“Goods prices were the driver of the upside surprise, with an unlikely-to-be-sustained rise in food prices pushing the headline index higher. Encouragingly, though, core producer prices registered the smallest monthly gain since May 2023,” said Matthew Martin, senior economist at Oxford Economics.
With the Federal Reserve set to meet next week, market watchers are closely reviewing pricing data after officials have said inflation could influence their decision on whether to again cut interest rates.
Despite the November bump, economists didn’t see the inflation data derailing an anticipated interest rate cut at the December meeting.
“Despite the upside surprise to the headline producer prices, the details of November’s report support another 25bps (basis points) rate cut from the Federal Reserve this month,” Martin wrote.
